Harvard biologist E.O.Wilson called the first decades of the 21st century a “bottleneck for humanity.” As if on cue, the year 2008 registered record energy and food prices, faster-than-anticipated climate change and then global economic collapse. An absence of real solutions to global challenges could lead to sustained scarcity, social unrest and environmental degradation.

Population Growth

Humanity quadrupled in the 20th century from 1.2 to 6 billion and the UN projects an increase to 9 billion by 2040, with almost all new growth in developing nations. Many 20th century economic giants—Japan, Europe, Russia—are shrinking as their senior populations soar, while Central, Latin and North America, including the US, are growing moderately. For the first time this year, half of the world’s people live in cities. By 2040, the world community will be challenged to meet the needs of 50% more people than were alive in 2000—requiring unprecedented levels of innovation and cooperation. Failure will exacerbate geopolitical instability, global climate change and dislocation.

Globalization

Computers and the Internet have changed the way we live, work, communicate and trade, loosened the physical basis of “workplace” and “community,” undermined local manufacturing and newspapers and supported vast global networks and hyperlinked economies such as “Chimerica.” In the wake of the downturn, as American consumers, corporations and governments reel from debt and deficits, China and India are faring better than most, which is accelerating a 500-year shift fromWest to East in the economic and innovative center of gravity. Creative and technically skilled workers remain in high global demand as the wellspring of problem solving and innovation.

Climate Change

Rising demand in developing nations spurred energy use, food and fuel costs to record peaks in July 2008. The late-year collapse brought prices down, slowing investment in renewable energy and oil exploration. Experts predict that a rebound will raise prices sharply. Meanwhile, climate change is occurring faster than predicted. New projections show a sea-level rise over the 21st century of about 3 feet and the Northeast coast at particular risk of erosion and flooding. Experts predict extreme weather, declining fresh water supplies and increasing ocean acidification, with declines in fish stocks and biodiversity. These trends eventually will dwarf all others.